How will your subscription revenue grow over the next 12 months?
How will your recurring revenue develop?
Enter your own numbers. The forecast starts on the worked example further down this page. The chart shows MRR for today and each of the next 12 months; the table under it lists the months.
All results are estimates from your inputs, not figures from your store.
How does the forecast work?
It uses the same definitions as the MRR and churn rate glossary pages and steps through the year one month at a time:
- Subscriptions next month = subscriptions this month × (1 − monthly churn rate) + new subscriptions per month.
- MRR = subscriptions × average order value × orders per month. Orders per month come from the delivery interval: every week = 52 ÷ 12, every 2 weeks = 26 ÷ 12, every 4 weeks = 13 ÷ 12, every month = 1, every 2 months = ½, every 3 months = ⅓.
- Recurring revenue over the next 12 months = the MRR of months 1 to 12 added up.
- Subscriptions where signups equal cancellations = new subscriptions per month ÷ monthly churn rate. Below that level the count grows, above it the count shrinks, and every month it moves closer. Without churn there is no such level.
What do 150 new subscriptions a month at 5% churn add up to?
Example (made-up numbers): 1,000 active subscriptions today, 150 new subscriptions a month, a monthly churn rate of 5%, an average order value of €30 and monthly delivery.
Each month is the month before × 0.95 + 150, and MRR is that × €30:
| Month | Subscriptions | MRR |
|---|---|---|
| Today | 1,000 | €30,000 |
| 1 | 1,100 | €33,000 |
| 2 | 1,195 | €35,850 |
| 6 | about 1,530 | about €45,894 |
| 12 | about 1,919 | about €57,578 |
Over the 12 months, MRR adds up to about €556,010 of recurring revenue. The level where 150 signups equal the cancellations is 150 ÷ 5% = 3,000 subscriptions.
Which lever moves the forecast most?
The level the count heads for is new subscriptions ÷ churn rate, so both levers work the same way: doubling new subscriptions or halving churn each doubles it. In the example, 2.5% churn instead of 5% ends the year at about 2,310 subscriptions and €69,300 MRR instead of 1,919 and €57,578, and the level rises to 6,000.
What does the forecast leave out?
- Seasons and campaigns. New subscriptions are the same every month here; real signups rise and fall.
- Changing churn. New subscribers often cancel earlier than long-standing ones, so the real rate moves with the mix.
- Skips, pauses and one-time add-ons. They change billed revenue in a month but not the MRR of an active subscription.
- Price changes. The order value stays the same for the whole year.
How does Zubs move both levers?
For more new subscriptions, Zubs shows subscribe & save offers where customers already buy. For less churn, it answers cancellations with a cancellation flow and retries failed payments. Its analytics shows new subscriptions, cancellations and churn month by month, so you can run the forecast again with your latest numbers.
Bottom line
A subscription forecast is one step repeated: keep last month’s subscriptions less churn, add the new ones, multiply by order value and orders per month. The count heads for new subscriptions ÷ churn rate, so more signups and less churn move it in the same way.
Frequently asked questions
- Why does the forecast flatten out?
- Cancellations grow with the number of subscriptions, new signups don't. Once cancellations (subscriptions × churn rate) equal the new subscriptions, the count stops growing, at new subscriptions ÷ churn rate.
- Is MRR the same as the subscription revenue I bill?
- No. MRR normalizes every subscription to a monthly amount. Billed revenue is what was charged in a month, which is lower when subscribers skip and lumpy when they're billed every 2 or 3 months.
- What if my subscribers are on different intervals?
- Use the interval most of them are on with your average order value, or run the forecast once per interval and add up the results.
- Is my data stored or sent anywhere?
- No. The calculation runs in your browser, and nothing you enter leaves the page.